Facts and Perspectives on Coronavirus

There is a great deal of information circulating about the Coronavirus (aka COVID-19). Unfortunately, it is being politicized by both the right and the left. The left is focusing on and emphasizing the impact the virus is having and will continue to have on the lives affected directly, while treating more lightly its impact on the economy. The right seems to be attempting to minimize the truth of its potential to cause massive deaths in order to try and lessen the panic and impact it is having on the economy. Nether of these are responsible approaches. I’ve spent many hours searching and reading from reliable sources both the impact the virus will have on lives as well as the impact it will have on the economy. I’m going share what i’ve learned so far as of March 10th.

Facts:

• As of today there are approximately 110,000 confirmed cases worldwide and there have been almost 4,000 deaths
• Diagnostic tests are not yet widely available, but currently are being made and distributed rapidly and should be more available in coming days and weeks
• Unlike the flu, there is currently no effective treatment or vaccine available, in spite of anything you may have heard
• Most cases are mild
• Children are affected by the virus to a much lesser degree than adults.
• The elderly or those with chronic illness or weakened immune systems are at a much higher mortality risk than the general population
• As of today, there are more than 550 confirmed (by testing) cases in the U.S. in more than 30 states which has resulted in 22 deaths so far.
• The death rate appears to be about 3.4% worldwide compared to the seasonal flu rate of .1% and the 1918 Spanish Flu Epidemic rate of between 2 and 3%. This may change and be more accurate as testing becomes more available.

The Coronavirus is serious in terms of both its deadliness and also its impact on the economy.

This is why the left and the right are each both right and wrong in their approach.

Here is how it may impact our country:

There are many ways in which the U.S. is better able to handle this pandemic (i use this term accurately, Dr. Anthony Fauci who has been the Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a member of the president’s Coronavirus Team said on 60 Minutes Sunday night that the Coronavirus meets the criteria of a pandemic on a worldwide basis. Check this link for his qualifications: https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director 

We have well trained specialists and much more research here than in many other parts of the world.

However, and this is a very BIG however, there are two ways in which we are much more vulnerable to this pandemic than the rest of the developed world, and these two things compound the problem and the likelihood of its spread in our country.

1. About 25% of Americans do not have health insurance. This is unique in our country compared to almost every other developed nation in the world. If you do not have health insurance you are far less likely to seek medical care for illness.
2. A significant percentage of our citizens do not have paid sick leave, which is also unique to the U.S. If you do not have paid sick leave, you are much less likely or able to stay home from work when you are sick, hence you are more likely to spread the virus.

Please give me a chance to explain what this means to our country.

The people who do not have health insurance or paid sick leave are mostly those who work in retail and services positions. In other words, people who interact with other people as a part of their jobs. That should scare you. They can’t afford to miss work or to go to the doctor, so they will be waiting on tables or checking you out at the grocery store. In other words, spreading the Coronavirus,

The impact on our economy:

Most people have not considered this aspect of the Coronavirus, but it’s part of the reason why the president is trying his best to downplay the spread of the virus in the U.S.

The U.S. used to have an economy based predominantly on manufacturing and farming. That is no longer the case. Our economy is now mostly based on retail and service while our manufacturing has been sent to other countries.

When people fear catching a contagious disease, they begin to stay out of the public. This is only natural, and in fact is wise and prudent. However, this will impact our nation’s economy to the core. Here is why:

Tourism

A very significant part of our economy is based on tourism. Consider the impact of people not going to Disney World, Sea World, Legoland, etc, etc. Many cities and even states have a very large portion of their economy based on tourism dollars. In fact, that is the reason why Florida is able to not have a state income tax. We get a vast mount of our state revenue from taxes and fees assessed to tourists. Not only will a loss of tourism dollars directly impact the economy, but the trickle down will compound the impact. Plane flights will drop precipatively. Thousands of employees will be laid off at tourist destinations across the country.

Public gatherings:

People will stop going to movies, concerts, fairs, festivals, and sporting events. Several large corporations have already cancelled their yearly public events and conferences. This also impact plane flights, hotel revenues, restaurants, etc.

The restaurant business:

People will consider far too risky to go out to a public place to eat food handled by others. It could destory the entire restaurant industry at least in the short term. This will trickle down throughout the economy as people are laid off.

Cruise Lines:

We’ve already seen the impact of the Coronavirus on cruise lines. It will only get worse.

Epidemics and Pandemics spread exponentially. This video explains what that means and why this is so very serious.

Conclusion

In just the past two weeks the stock market has plummeted more than it has in decades. As the effects of the virus’s impact on the economy as stated above becomes more pronounced, the stock market will continue to drop.

We face a twofold impact on our country. People are going to die in substantial numbers. While the death rate as a percentage of those who get the disease will likely decrease due to more testing becoming available, it is extremely likely that the Coronavirus will be 10 to 20 times more deadly than the flu. Given our lack of universal healthcare and paid sick leave, it is the poorest of our people who will contract the virus and those are also the most likely of our people to die, and also the most likely to spread the disease.

The sole bright spot is that children seem to be much less affected by this virus that the general population

 Now Go Wash Your Hands!